About

Ever since my junior high days in the mid-sixties, I have been fascinated by rating systems. Having grown up in Indiana, I was particularly interested in high school basketball rankings, and I would take great pleasure in seeing a small school ranked above a traditional powerhouse. But I always had the question, “How did they come up with that?”

My question goes unanswered by many of today’s rating systems. Some systems do not disclose their methodology at all, and some only provide partial explanations. Others use high-level mathematics or statistics that are difficult for the average person to comprehend.

My goal in creating RAMS was to develop an understandable rating system based on three factors – Record, Average Margin, and Schedule. RAMS consists of three different but interrelated rankings – Point Rating, Winning Propensity, and the recently added PC Ranking which injects an additional factor of Tournament Results.

Point Rating – A team’s Point Rating (PR) is simply the average Point Rating of its opponents, plus or minus its Average Scoring Margin. A team with a PR of 3 would be considered a 6-point favorite over a team with a PR of negative 3 based on past results. If necessary, Point Ratings from the previous season are used to determine relative PR values for groups of teams who have yet to play anyone outside the group. A Point Rating of zero is considered average.

Winning Propensity – Winning Propensity (WP) is a numerical value that represents a team’s likelihood of defeating an opponent, based on results over the course of the season. A team with a WP of 900 would be considered to have a 90% Probability of Winning (POW) against a team with a WP of 100. A Winning Propensity of 100 is considered average. The theory behind Winning Propensity is that for any team, the sum of the POWs for each game played equals the total number of wins. If we were to strictly limit this approach to actual games, a winless team would have a WP of zero, and the WP of an undefeated team would be infinite. In order to avoid such scenarios, RAMS credits each team with an artificial tie against a hypothetical opponent called a Peer. The WP of each team’s Peer corresponds to the Point Rating for that particular team. The WP ranking is the primary ranking for RAMS through most of the season.

PC Ranking – In addition to the two previously described rankings, I have added a third ranking – the PC or “Playoff Consistent” ranking. The PC ranking is a one-time ranking done after the completion of the playoffs. The process starts with the WP ranking, and then adjusts it so that the winner of every tournament game is ranked ahead of the team it defeated. For example, if a 10th ranked team defeated a 5th ranked team in the tournament, the winning team would advance three spots to #7 and the losing team would drop three spots to #8, barring any other upsets. For tournaments in which teams must qualify to participate, RAMS makes adjustments so that qualifiers are ranked ahead of non-qualifiers where pertinent. (Teams that qualify as conference champion are not necessarily ranked ahead of non-qualifiers from a different conference.)